Despite last week choppy trading the FTSE 100 pull back has been relatively constrained with the bullish trend still firmly in place. Concerns would increase if the FTSE 100 broke below support at 5000.
The key activity this week falls before the US Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday with markets likely to be relatively choppy as profit taking emerges. Today, however, starts on a relatively quiet note in Europe flash PMI data for manufacturing and services will be the focal point. In the US, only existing home sales are due with another gain expected particularly after the strength of pending home sales data. In the UK, the start of the CBI conference with IMF MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn due to speak at 9.30am; whilst the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal-Democrat leaders are all also due to speak today.
Tuesday witnesses an increase in key US data with an expected mild downgrade of US Q3 GDP, especially after Fed Fisher’s comments on Friday. Further house price data is due out from S&P/Case Shiller which should provide further detail on whether house prices in the US have indeed stabilised. The FOMC minutes will also be released later in the day with investors looking closely at the details on what criteria regarding jobs and inflation the Federal Reserve is looking for to bring to an end low interest rates. In the UK, Governor King and MPC members Tucker, Fisher, Sentance and Posen are due to testify before the Treasury Select Committee. In Europe, further business surveys are due for release, in the form of German IFO and France INSEE.
On Wednesday the remainder of the US data for the week is brought forward with US durable goods, personal income and spending, new homes sales, University of Michigan’s final reading and weekly jobless claims all due for release.
In the UK, second reading of Q3 GDP is due with consensus expecting a mild upgrade from -0.4%qoq reported earlier.
The rest of the week, is populated by Japanese data including household spending, CPI, unemployment rate and retail sales data. Meanwhile the week closes quietly on Friday with European business climate indicators.
© Brooks Macdonald Asset Management 2009
Sources: Reuters: BBC: Bloomberg: Lawshare: Deutsche Bank (db): Proquote: Financial Times: Wall Street
Journal: CLSA: Sharescope: Market News. Capital Economics: CNBC: Wikipedia:
Please note this report provides a guide to some of the relevant areas that individual investors should consider discussing with an authorised adviser in relation to their specific circumstances, it does not constitute individual advice. As a result no action should be taken or refrained from being taken as a result of its content.
